TD₿: Is the Bitcoin Supercycle Already Here? - (a Swan Signal Live segment) with Hurley, Steven, John Alec
TL;DR:
Hey Bitcoiners,
The "Saylor Cycle Thesis," as outlined by Brad Mills and echoed by others in the Bitcoin community, claim Bitcoin is evolving beyond its traditional four-year boom-and-bust halving cycle.
Unlike past drawdowns driven by fundamental skepticism about Bitcoin’s viability (e.g., scaling debates in 2018 or the ICO collapse), today’s market structure—marked by institutional adoption and treasury accumulation—suggests that massive 80% drawdowns may no longer be typical.
Participants argue that while sharp corrections may still occur, they’re less likely to be paired with long periods of disbelief or narratives that Bitcoin is “dead,” as broader acceptance and structural buy-in have raised the floor of belief and support.
Instead of repeating predictable cycles, Bitcoin may be entering a new phase characterized by macroeconomic forces, corporate treasuries, and geopolitical relevance. Corrections could still happen—especially after parabolic moves—but may be shorter and less severe in duration, more akin to equity markets post-2008.
The real variable now is how leveraged institutional players become and whether their bids remain strong during downturns. The bottom line: cycles aren’t dead, but they’re evolving—and so is the nature of Bitcoin’s volatility and resilience.
Tick tock next block,
The Swan Education Team
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Quote of the Day
“I'm not here to fix Bitcoin.”
- Michael Saylor
Job of the Day
Bitcoin SEO Blog Specialist
HongBao Bitcoin
Anywhere / Remote only / Full-Time
Marketing / Open-source
We’re looking for a Bitcoin-native SEO content writer to help grow hongbaob.tc — we bring the tradition of Chinese red envelopes into the world of Bitcoin gifting.
Your Mission
Craft sharp, educational blog posts that rank on search engines and spark curiosity around Bitcoin, red envelopes, and self-custody culture.
WHAT YOU BRING
2+ years of experience in SEO writing or content marketing
A deep interest in Bitcoin and self-custody (you’ve probably gifted a wallet or two)
Fluent English (spoken and written) — French is a plus
Comfortable working independently and proactively
A mindset grounded in honesty and clear communication
HOW WE WORK
We’re a small, international team working asynchronously and remotely inside Gather.Town, our virtual office.
No fixed hours — just clear deliverables and trust.
You pitch blog ideas, we validate them together
Content is reviewed collaboratively in GitHub (open-source culture)
You’ll collaborate with the founder and dev to align SEO + product narratives
COMPENSATION
This is a long-term freelance role, paid per article.
$40–60/article, depending on length and depth
800–1,200 words per article
2–4 articles/month
Perks
Access to pro-level SEO/marketing courses (e.g., Udemy, Copyhackers)
Visibility through our growing Bitcoin gifting platform
Optional mentorship in productivity & open source content publishing
We start with a 1-month trial (1–2 articles). If we vibe, we grow.
HIRING PROCESS
Application review
Loom video intro
Paid offline writing challenge
Final call with the founder
RULES TO APPLY
Please include in your message:
What languages are spoken in Sweden?
No AI-generated cover letters — we’ll skip them
Links to real writing samples (crypto/SEO preferred)
Your GitHub or blog portfolio
Not your particular skill set? Check out all the Bitcoin Jobs at bitcoinerjobs.com.
In the Headlines
FHFA Directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to Recognize Bitcoin and Crypto as Eligible Mortgage Reserves
The FHFA has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to recognize properly documented Bitcoin holdings as part of borrower reserves in mortgage risk assessments, marking a historic shift toward integrating digital assets into the U.S. housing finance system.
Only Bitcoin held on U.S.-regulated exchanges will be eligible, and risk frameworks must account for its price volatility.
Swan Shortie of the Day
Event of the Day
![BTC Prague 2025 Discount Code [DISCO] – 10% Off - Discotech - The #1 Nightlife App](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!i2m8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e7a0138-4ff1-4e24-8059-19948bce9541_1500x500.jpeg "BTC Prague 2025 Discount Code [DISCO] – 10% Off - Discotech - The #1 Nightlife App")
BTC Prague 2025 is Europe's premier Bitcoin-only conference, scheduled for June 19–21, 2025, at the PVA Expo in Prague, Czech Republic. Now in its third edition, the event is expected to draw over 10,000 attendees, featuring more than 200 speakers across multiple stages, and hosting over 100 Bitcoin-focused companies.
What to Expect
Business Day (June 19): A dedicated pre-conference day tailored for entrepreneurs, investors, and developers, offering strategic insights into integrating Bitcoin into various business operations.
Main Conference (June 20–21): Two days of keynotes, panel discussions, and presentations from leading figures in the Bitcoin space, including:
Michael Saylor (Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy)
Adam Back (CEO and Co-founder of Blockstream)
Jack Mallers (Founder and CEO of Strike)
Mark Moss (CEO of Market Disruptors)
Jimmy Song (Bitcoin Developer)
Roman Reher (Founder and CEO of Blocktrainer)
Expo Hall: An extensive exhibition area featuring over 100 Bitcoin companies showcasing their latest innovations and services.
Networking Opportunities: Attendees can connect with like-minded individuals, industry leaders, and innovators through various networking events and a dedicated mobile app with smart matchmaking tools.
Side Events
BTC Prague 2025 offers a range of side events to enhance the conference experience.
Dev/Hack/Day (June 18): A one-day event for developers and tech enthusiasts to explore cutting-edge Bitcoin technologies.
Cypherpunk Meetup (June 19): A gathering for privacy advocates and freedom seekers to discuss topics related to digital privacy and Bitcoin.
Run For Hal (June 19): A 5km social run through Prague's Old Town, honoring Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney.
Self Custody Celebration (June 20): A meetup focusing on Bitcoin self-custody, featuring expert insights and a lively celebration.
Saturday After Party (June 21): An event to conclude the conference with music, drinks, and networking opportunities.
Tickets
Various ticket options are available at BTC Prague.
Conference Pass (€345): Access to the two-day main conference, including all stages and networking areas.
Business Pass (€595): Includes all Conference Pass benefits plus access to Business Day and additional networking opportunities.
VIP Pass (€1,820): All-inclusive access with added perks such as VIP lounge, exclusive Q&A sessions, premium seating, and concierge service.
A 5% discount is available for payments made in Bitcoin. For more details and to purchase tickets, visit: btcprague.com.
Meme of the Day
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