TD₿: Has Bitcoin Already Topped Out This Cycle? - (a Swan original video) with Hurley, Saifedean Ammous and Natalie Burnell
TL;DR: Has Bitcoin double-topped—or is a blow-off top coming? We cover price action, leverage risks, ETF flows, and why 62% of BTC hasn’t moved in a year.
Hey Bitcoiners,
Bitcoin's recent price action - peaking at $108K in January and $112K in May - has sparked debate over whether the 2025 cycle has already topped out, echoing the double-top pattern of 2021. Critics point to fading momentum, rising leverage, and softening ETF inflows as warning signs.
Even Bitcoin maximalists like Saifedean Ammous caution that the current environment is ripe for a volatile correction, especially as corporate treasuries load up on Bitcoin using long-dated debt. However, the structural setup remains bullish: 62% of all BTC hasn’t moved in over a year, and Bitcoin continues to trade above key cost basis levels, suggesting strong holder conviction and tight supply.
While the market may feel uncertain, macro conditions are fueling Bitcoin's long-term thesis. Political leaders across party lines are now openly supporting the removal of the U.S. debt ceiling - effectively greenlighting infinite money creation.
Meanwhile, long-only allocators and public companies are accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, not for short-term speculation. This convergence of fixed supply and accelerating demand could set the stage for a blow-off top rather than a breakdown. Despite the noise, Bitcoin remains the only monetary network immune to soft defaults, structural inflation, and political manipulation.
Tick tock next block,
The Swan Education Team
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Quote of the Day
“Open source software is a meritocracy of ideas, not of people. So people are always talking about "Who controls Bitcoin?" Good ideas control Bitcoin. Not people.”
- Ben Prentice
Job of the Day
Project Manager, Marketing
Bitcoin Magazine
Anywhere / Remote Only / Full Time
$73-132k (Annually)
Business Operations
About BTC Inc.
BTC Inc. is the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine, The Bitcoin Conference, and a partner of UTXO Management. Our mission is Hyperbitcoinization—building a global, inclusive monetary system free from censorship, poor incentives, and state interference. We’re developing a portfolio of brands that connect the world to Bitcoin and empower humanity.
The Role
We’re looking for a sharp, organized Project Manager to lead high-impact client initiatives across marketing, events, content, and partnerships. You’ll manage timelines, drive deliverables, and align cross-functional teams—all while bringing clarity and execution power to fast-moving, high-stakes environments.
What We’re Looking For
5+ years in project/program management (marketing or media preferred)
Skilled in cross-functional coordination and execution
Proficient in tools like Notion, Asana, etc.
Strong communicator with client-facing experience
Detail-oriented multitasker with a systems mindset
Bonus: Experience in events or creative production
Bonus: Project management certification (PMP, CSM, etc.)
Bonus: Passion for Bitcoin and alignment with our mission
Why BTC Inc.
We’re solving hard problems to build a freer financial future. If you’re passionate about Bitcoin and thrive in ambitious environments, you’ll fit right in.
Unlimited PTO
Company MacBook
Full health, dental, vision
Remote-first and flexible schedule
100% company-paid life/disability insurance
Access to top leaders and events in Bitcoin
Salary Range: $73,000–$132,000 USD (Remote)
Not your particular skill set? Check out all the Bitcoin Jobs at bitcoinerjobs.com.
In the Headlines
Early Twitter Investor Greg Kidd to Build $100M Bitcoin Treasury at Public Healthtech Firm Know Labs
Healthtech firm Know Labs announced plans to purchase 1,000 Bitcoin—worth approximately $105 million—as part of a new treasury strategy led by incoming CEO Greg Kidd.
Kidd, a prominent fintech investor known for early stakes in Twitter, Coinbase, Solana, Block, and Robinhood, will acquire a controlling interest in the company. He described the move as a strategic response to favorable market and regulatory conditions, aimed at driving long-term growth and shareholder value. Following the announcement, Know Labs’ stock surged 71% to $0.87.
Swan Shortie of the Day
Event of the Day
![BTC Prague 2025 Discount Code [DISCO] – 10% Off - Discotech - The #1 Nightlife App](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!i2m8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e7a0138-4ff1-4e24-8059-19948bce9541_1500x500.jpeg "BTC Prague 2025 Discount Code [DISCO] – 10% Off - Discotech - The #1 Nightlife App")
BTC Prague 2025 is Europe's premier Bitcoin-only conference, scheduled for June 19–21, 2025, at the PVA Expo in Prague, Czech Republic. Now in its third edition, the event is expected to draw over 10,000 attendees, featuring more than 200 speakers across multiple stages, and hosting over 100 Bitcoin-focused companies.
What to Expect
Business Day (June 19): A dedicated pre-conference day tailored for entrepreneurs, investors, and developers, offering strategic insights into integrating Bitcoin into various business operations.
Main Conference (June 20–21): Two days of keynotes, panel discussions, and presentations from leading figures in the Bitcoin space, including:
Michael Saylor (Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy)
Adam Back (CEO and Co-founder of Blockstream)
Jack Mallers (Founder and CEO of Strike)
Mark Moss (CEO of Market Disruptors)
Jimmy Song (Bitcoin Developer)
Roman Reher (Founder and CEO of Blocktrainer)
Expo Hall: An extensive exhibition area featuring over 100 Bitcoin companies showcasing their latest innovations and services.
Networking Opportunities: Attendees can connect with like-minded individuals, industry leaders, and innovators through various networking events and a dedicated mobile app with smart matchmaking tools.
Side Events
BTC Prague 2025 offers a range of side events to enhance the conference experience.
Dev/Hack/Day (June 18): A one-day event for developers and tech enthusiasts to explore cutting-edge Bitcoin technologies.
Cypherpunk Meetup (June 19): A gathering for privacy advocates and freedom seekers to discuss topics related to digital privacy and Bitcoin.
Run For Hal (June 19): A 5km social run through Prague's Old Town, honoring Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney.
Self Custody Celebration (June 20): A meetup focusing on Bitcoin self-custody, featuring expert insights and a lively celebration.
Saturday After Party (June 21): An event to conclude the conference with music, drinks, and networking opportunities.
Tickets
Various ticket options are available at BTC Prague.
Conference Pass (€345): Access to the two-day main conference, including all stages and networking areas.
Business Pass (€595): Includes all Conference Pass benefits plus access to Business Day and additional networking opportunities.
VIP Pass (€1,820): All-inclusive access with added perks such as VIP lounge, exclusive Q&A sessions, premium seating, and concierge service.
A 5% discount is available for payments made in Bitcoin. For more details and to purchase tickets, visit: btcprague.com.
Meme of the Day
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