TD₿: Can Bitcoin Break the Dollar? Larry Fink Thinks So... - (a Swan Signal Live video segment) with Brady, John, Isaiah and Matt
TL;DR: Is the U.S. dollar’s reign under threat? CNBC’s Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin could hit $150K, while Larry Fink’s BlackRock letter warns of America’s spiraling debt plus what's the Fed's next move?
Hey Bitcoiners,
Today, our Swan Signal Live crew discusses Tom Lee’s recent appearance on CNBC discussing Bitcoin's recent price action and broader macro outlook. He noted that Bitcoin has been in a seasonal lull, but with March behind us and signs of central bank easing, he's bullish heading into the rest of the year.
Lee reaffirmed his $150K Bitcoin price target, emphasizing that dovish Fed policy, positive Washington sentiment, and the end of quantitative tightening could fuel a rally. He also addressed the role of stablecoin legislation in protecting the dollar’s dominance in crypto, calling it key to preserving U.S. financial influence globally.
The segment then transitioned to Larry Fink’s annual BlackRock letter, which flagged U.S. debt as a growing threat to the dollar’s reserve status—potentially opening the door to alternatives like Bitcoin.
The letter noted if deficits continue to balloon, the U.S. could lose its monetary leadership. CBO projections show federal debt-to-GDP ratios climbing for decades, hinting at a looming “grand economic reordering.” This underscores Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a hedge and strategic asset amid increasing economic uncertainty and debt unsustainability.
You can watch the entire episode here.
Tick tock next block,
The Swan Education Team
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“It’s very attractive to the libertarian viewpoint if we can explain it properly. I’m better with code than with words though.”
- Satoshi Nakamoto
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In the Headlines
Bitcoin and Stocks Surge as Trump Announces 90-Day Tariff Pause
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most "reciprocal" tariffs, triggering a sharp rally in financial markets. Bitcoin surged 4.6% in less than an hour, hitting $81,300 following the news.
Trump emphasized that the tariff pause excludes China, which will now face 125% levies—escalating trade tensions after Beijing imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the move a step toward market certainty, highlighting that the decision was influenced by allied nations acting in good faith rather than recent market volatility.
Over 26% of Bitcoin Supply Now Underwater Amid Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty
Over 26% of Bitcoin supply is now "underwater," meaning it's worth less than what holders paid for it, according to CryptoQuant. That’s a major shift from just a few months ago—back in mid-December, almost no BTC was held at a loss. Rising macroeconomic stress and Trump’s new tariffs have contributed to recent price drops, with Bitcoin down to around $76.8K.
Despite BTC still trading far above levels from last September (~$56K), the underwater supply is similar, likely due to heavy buying at high prices during late 2024’s bull run. Institutional sentiment is cooling too, with seven of the last eight days showing net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Still, today’s holders are in much better shape than during the FTX collapse in late 2022, when over half the market was in the red.
Swan Shortie of the Day
Event of the Day
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Meme of the Day
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