TD₿: Bitcoin will 5x in the next 3 years, with or without you by Jesse Myers
TL;DR Each bull market, some portion of the people that were lured in by Bitcoin FOMO do enough homework to discover Bitcoin’s true merits.
Hey Bitcoiners,
From an outsider’s perspective, Bitcoin can appear just like any other speculative bubble in history, especially in periods of the cycle like we find ourselves in today.
It is around this time when financial pundits begin claiming that Bitcoin is dead, and you begin to hear the tired “Bitcoin is Tulips” comparison again.
The keyword in the sentence above is “again.” Unlike other speculative bubbles throughout financial history, Bitcoin has risen parabolically and crashed on multiple occasions, each time consolidating at a higher low than the previous cycle.
The reason being is that the long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s value are hardwired in its design, not in speculation. Bitcoin’s supply is fixed at 21 million, and its issuance is programmed to be cut in half every 4 years at pre-determined events called the Halvings. These supply-side dynamics are set-in-stone, and so when it comes to Bitcoin’s price discovery, it really only comes down to the demand-side of things.
Due to its inelastic supply and demand that fluctuates with human fear and greed, Bitcoin’s price action is volatile, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Bitcoin’s volatility can be thought of as a feature, not a bug.
Bitcoin’s volatile price action is what attracts new market participants to look at it for the first time. People read about Bitcoin’s rapid rise in the news or hear about how much money their friend made, and then this finally lures them into falling down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. Bitcoin’s meteoric price rises during bull markets elicit FOMO and cause the blow-off speculative tops that we have witnessed most recently in 2017 and 2021.
But the good news is, there’s always a portion of those individuals who succumbed to FOMO who take the time to do their own research and learn about what Bitcoin actually is and why it is important. Each bull run that leads to a speculative top inevitably mints new long-term Bitcoin holders. These individuals are who build the high-conviction investor base for the next Bitcoin bull market to build off of.
These supply and demand dynamics in Bitcoin are what ultimately set the price floor of Bitcoin higher with each halving epoch.
Jesse Myers explained these dynamics in this great article titled, “Bitcoin will 5x in the next 3 years, with or without you.” (09/22/2022)
When it comes down to it, Bitcoin’s price is simply a function of supply and demand. If we know the supply is set, then it all comes down to demand.
It’s logical to expect the demand for a censorship-resistant, undebaseable digital money will continue to increase in the years to come as inflation rages, capital controls increase, and censorship becomes more obvious and intrusive. As a result, the price of bitcoin will only have one way to go, given its fixed supply.
As Jesse says, this will happen with or without you.
Tick tock next block,
Cory Klippsten
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Quote of the Day
“Bitcoin is pristine collateral - no counterparty, default, or debasement risk. It will become clear in the next few years that the demand for it will exponentially outweigh the liquid supply for sale.” - Satonomics, Bitcoiner
Job of the Day
Want to join the Swan squad? We are looking for a Senior API Engineer with a great head for API design and implementation. The Swan API is an open platform that powers a rapidly growing set of Bitcoin companies and projects. You'll be working closely with our partners, taking part in solutions architecture, API design, and helping shape how Swan interfaces with the rest of the world.
Not your particular skillset? Check out all the Bitcoin jobs at bitcoinerjobs.com.
Featured Event
Tuesday — come to the YYC Bitcoin Meetup in Calgary from 6:30-8:30 pm. This event will include a short presentation on cryptography and then open the floor for questions on Bitcoin. Come hang out with other Bitcoiners and learn more about it!
Not in town for this? Check out all the Bitcoin events at bitcoinerevents.com.
Meme of the Day
Jesse’s article was golden!